What the Predicted Super El Niño Weather Event Means For Gardeners This May, and How to Prepare
Latest reports suggest this extreme weather phenomenon is expected as early as May – safeguard your garden plants with these 6 measures, pronto!
New reports from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predict the arrival of an extreme El Niño event as early as May. Forecasts now show a high certainty of this bringing an intense and volatile period of weather, with several sources aligning to suggest it could become the strongest El Niño event in modern history.
However, there’s plenty we gardeners can do to help our plants deal with the upcoming challenges.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is part of one of the strongest natural climate patterns in the world, where warm water that usually heads towards Asia shifts east towards the Americas, causing the Pacific jet stream to move south.
Forecasts predict 2026 will see a particularly extreme El Niño. All data suggests this event will cause a significant disturbance in global weather patterns, and some reports suggest it could become the strongest El Niño event in modern history. While El Nino happens every 2–7 years, the last strong event on record was in 1877–78, fuelling conditions that led to global famine which killed over 50 million people. An El Niño event typically lasts for 9–12 months.
When Will El Niño Happen?
The latest reports predict that the 2026 El Niño event might occur as early as May, and is highly likely by June–July.
How Will El Niño Impact Our Gardens?
Land and air surface temperatures are expected to be above normal everywhere.
Northern states are expected to experience drier conditions than normal, so gardens will require more irrigation. High temperatures without rainfall can degrade soil and cause plants to wilt, and lead to increased numbers of pests. Conversely, southern states are likely to have increased rainfall, which may lead to flooding and saturated soil. More cloud cover can slow the development of fruit, and warm, damp conditions are conducive to fungal disease.
While the effects of El Niño are usually most extreme in winter, it’s suggested that the strength of this year’s event will have a significant impact on summer weather, too.
How to Help Your Plants Cope
There are plenty of protective measures you can take now to help your plants deal with the predicted upcoming El Niño extremes. In this advice, you'll find links to products sold by a certain national retailer so you can see exactly what product type brings best results, but do support your local businesses.
1. Mulch Borders, Beds and Planters
Adding a 2 to 3-inch-thick layer of organic material on top of your garden soil will help to even out the effects of weather extremes. There are all sorts of mulching materials to choose from. Homemade compost is ideal, or buy a manufactured mulch such as Back to the Roots Organic Premium Mulch created from shredded wood or Organic Expanding Mulch made of coconut husk chips, both available from Amazon.
In drier states, a denser mulch is better at moisture retention, and shields soil from the heat of the sun to keep temperatures lower. This not only conserves moisture for your plants to stay hydrated, but protects against intense heat which can degrade beneficial microorganisms in the soil.
In southern states where bouts of heavy rainfall is predicted, a more open mulch of bark chips will help drainage and prevent soil erosion. This will also slowly rot down to improve the structure, and so the drainage, of your soil.
Use a bow rake with short tines like this from Amazon. The forked side will quickly spread the mulch, then flip the rake over to level the surface with the flat side. Keep the mulch away from plant bases – it shouldn’t touch any stems as it may cause them to rot; a hand rake such as this from Amazon is a handy tool to achieve this in congested borders.
2. Guard Against Fungal Disease in the South
Warm, wet weather provides just the right conditions for fungal diseases such as mildew to flourish. There’s plenty you can do to guard against them, however.
Your number one preventative measure is airflow so double-check you’ve snipped all the plants to prune in May, and be ruthless when you’re thinning seedlings so there’s no congestion. Another smart move is to spend five minutes a day deadheading fading flowers to remove damp, decaying matter where pathogens thrive. This also gives you the opportunity to regularly check your plants for the first signs of any fungal disease – and catching it early means you can quickly deal with the issue before it spreads.
During dry periods, always aim to water the soil rather than the plant itself, to keep foliage and flowerbuds dry. If you can’t avoid getting the plant wet, then watering first thing in the morning means it will quickly dry.
3. Weather-Proof Pots & Hanging Baskets
Any standalone volume of soil is vulnerable to weather extremes, quickly heating up and cooling down, and becoming saturated or dehydrated. And the smaller the volume of soil, the more at risk it is.
There are several things you can do to make life easier for plants in pots and hanging baskets. For a start, the bigger the pot, the more resources a plant has to access, so consider repotting your patio flowers and foliage up a pot size. This doesn’t have to be an expensive endeavor – buy one large planter to move your biggest plant into, then shift the next biggest plant into the newly-vacant container, and so on.
Repotting also brings the opportunity to refresh the soil in your planters. Using a moisture control potting mix such as this from Amazon helps guard against both too-dry and soggy roots, as excess water is captured then slowly released. You can achieve a similar benefit by mixing coconut coir such as this from Amazon into any regular container potting soil. Coconut coir is just one magic ingredient you can add to hanging baskets to help them flourish, too.
Even if you’re not repotting, refreshing the top few inches of soil in your planters will nourish plants so they’re better able to cope with whatever the weather throws at them.
In the south, raising pots on risers such as these from Amazon will improve drainage.
4. Shade Crops in the North
In the face of relentless dry heat, many crops will fail so, if you’re growing veggies in the north, consider shading them from the midday sun. A shade cloth of 30–50% such as this on Amazon will shield them from extremes but still allow plenty of sunlight through, and there are all sorts of sizes available, including kits for raised beds. To attach a cloth securely, choose one with grommets and use shade sail hardware such as this from Amazon to fix it place; tarp grips such as these from Amazon are also handy.
When you’re working out the details of where to place your cloth, remember that you’re not aiming to block out all the sunshine, just shade your crops for a few hours in the middle of the day.
If you have a greenhouse, it’s also worth covering the roof and south-facing wall with a shade cloth. And if your patio bakes in the sun, then your pots (and probably you too!) will appreciate some extra shade.
5. Irrigate Efficiently
Mandatory water restrictions are already in place across many US states but whether or not you’re affected, irrigate wisely for your plants’ sake.
Watering early in the morning before the sun climbs high in the sky means there’s less evaporation, so more water will get to your plants’ roots.
Delivering water via a drip irrigation system is around three times more efficient than using a hosepipe. With the water directed straight to the roots, at a slow rate, there’s far more absorption and much less evaporation. Many self-assembly kits are available, and plenty are tailormade for patio pots or raised beds. Do choose a system such as this from Amazon that delivers water directly to the ground, and not via mister sprays, though.
6. Support Your Garden Ecosystem
During periods of high heat, outbreaks of garden pests occur more frequently. Dry soil doesn’t transport nutrients as well, and doesn’t keep roots supplied with moisture, so your plants will be less able to tolerate attacks, too. At the other end of the spectrum, spells of wet weather will bring perfect conditions for abundant slugs and snails.
While pesticides may temporarily get rid of pests, they’ll also eliminate the beneficial critters that eat them, setting up a vicious circle that will only benefit the creatures you don’t want in your garden. A far better long-term solution is to support your garden ecosystem for pest control, creating habitat and food to bring a self-regulating balance of wildlife into your garden.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is expected to update its 2026 El Niño predictions later in May, so we'll bring you the latest expert advice then.
